forecasting

forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 days ago

Superforecasters Continue to Beat the Futures Market

goodjudgment.substack.com

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Superforecasters Continue to Beat the Futures Market

goodjudgment.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 days ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 15 days ago

interview with Robin Hanson, the intellectual godfather of modern prediction markets

news.polymarket.com

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interview with Robin Hanson, the intellectual godfather of modern prediction markets

news.polymarket.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 15 days ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

The AI Superforecasters Are Here

www.astralcodexten.com

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The AI Superforecasters Are Here

www.astralcodexten.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

Forecasting Mathematics

news.manifold.markets

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Forecasting Mathematics

news.manifold.markets

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

Forecasting Hantavirus

news.manifold.markets

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Forecasting Hantavirus

news.manifold.markets

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It

forum.effectivealtruism.org

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Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It

forum.effectivealtruism.org

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

Why Forecasting Fails Decision Makers

nwprtnarrative.substack.com

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Why Forecasting Fails Decision Makers

nwprtnarrative.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

Grading AI 2027’s 2025 Predictions

blog.aifutures.org

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Grading AI 2027’s 2025 Predictions

blog.aifutures.org

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

Prediction markets are breaking the news and becoming their own beat

www.niemanlab.org

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Prediction markets are breaking the news and becoming their own beat

www.niemanlab.org

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 6 months ago

I underestimated AI capabilities (again)

www.planned-obsolescence.org

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I underestimated AI capabilities (again)

www.planned-obsolescence.org

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 6 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 6 months ago

BahnBet — Bet on German Train Delays

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BahnBet — Bet on German Train Delays

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 6 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 7 months ago

Aggressively reorienting the forecasting community towards AI resilience

forecasting.substack.com

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Aggressively reorienting the forecasting community towards AI resilience

forecasting.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 7 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 7 months ago

Polymarket vs Forecasting: Geopolitical Shifts in 2026

swiftcentre.substack.com

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Polymarket vs Forecasting: Geopolitical Shifts in 2026

swiftcentre.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 7 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 7 months ago

He Predicted the Next Shutdown 3 Weeks Early

news.polymarket.com

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He Predicted the Next Shutdown 3 Weeks Early

news.polymarket.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 7 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 8 months ago

AI predictions for 2026

www.planned-obsolescence.org

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AI predictions for 2026

www.planned-obsolescence.org

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 8 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 8 months ago

Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls

www.astralcodexten.com

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Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls

www.astralcodexten.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 8 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 year ago

Metaculus and Markets: What’s the Difference?

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus and Markets: What’s the Difference?

www.metaculus.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 year ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 year ago

$286 to $1M from ‘Reversing Stupidity’

news.polymarket.com

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$286 to $1M from ‘Reversing Stupidity’

news.polymarket.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 year ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 year ago

How accurate are prediction markets?

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How accurate are prediction markets?

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 year ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 year ago

Forecasting America

news.manifold.markets

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Forecasting America

news.manifold.markets

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 year ago

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forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

You are not logged in. However you can subscribe from another Fediverse account, for example Lemmy or Mastodon. To do this, paste the following into the search field of your instance: !forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: !predictions@lemmy.ca

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

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